Several things are driving the current heating oil price increase, but the biggest factor is global market movement tied to the Iran war. Oil price currency plays a role too – conflict tends to send investors toward safe-haven currencies, weakening the pound against the US dollar that oil is traded in. On top of that, moving fuel safely through critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz becomes harder during instability, restricting supply just as demand holds firm or rises – a squeeze that’s felt more acutely in winter than over the summer months. Getting your order in early is the best way to sidestep the steepest of these seasonal spikes.

Our team keeps a close eye on the heating oil price forecast, UK wide and even closer to home, giving homeowners, business owners, and farmers across Devon and Cornwall a clearer read on where the market might be heading. Even so, no forecast can account for every twist. For example, when the waterway unexpectedly closes in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices can climb again with little warning. Rather than holding out in the hope of a drop, ordering what you need, when you need it, ensures you do not accidentally run out of your fuel supply in the year’s harshest seasons.

A good rule of thumb is to reorder once your tank reaches one-third full, and don’t leave it until the first real cold snap, when both demand and delivery times can jump quickly. Getting ahead of things in autumn, rather than scrambling in the thick of winter, puts you in better control of price and availability. If you’d rather not think about timing at all, our team can set up scheduled or automatic deliveries on your behalf, using tools like Cosy Connect. What’s more, if you’re a member of our Cosy Heating Club, you can spread payments more predictably over the course of the year

Running dry in the depths of winter usually means a longer wait, as we work through a spike in urgent orders across Devon and Cornwall. It can also draw air into your system and encourage sludge to build up, sometimes needing a professional visit to put it right. If it does happen to you, reach out straight away – we offer emergency delivery and our team will do everything possible to get things sorted quickly. Even so, staying ahead of your usage remains the simplest way to avoid the situation altogether. Enquire about Cosy Connect and our Cosy Heating Club.

A few small habits make a real difference at home: bleed your radiators periodically, book an annual boiler service, rely on a thermostat and timer rather than leaving heating running constantly, and insulate any exposed pipework or tanks to cut heat loss.

For farms and businesses, those same principles help, but fuel quality deserves attention too – regular tank cleaning and maintenance keep sludge, condensation, and microbial growth from clogging filters and pipework. Additives can also boost combustion efficiency and help protect fuel that’s stored for longer periods. And don’t overlook the smaller operational wins, such as cutting engine idling, matching equipment size to the task at hand, and keeping tyres correctly inflated to reduce resistance, whether on the road or across the fields.

As an employee-owned group with decades of experience in navigating unpredictable wholesale markets, we draw on detailed market data and established supply chain relationships to stay ahead of emerging trends. We also lean on a well-connected global network to secure stock before peak demand hits wherever we can, and we keep communication open with customers the moment anything changes – so you’re always equipped to make proactive, informed decisions through the season. 

No, there’s currently no red diesel shortage or wider diesel shortfall in the UK, let alone across Devon and Cornwall. That said, global supply chains are more exposed to disruption than they’d normally be, and it’s genuinely difficult to know in advance whether conflict abroad will affect import routes. Farmers and businesses using this fuel are best placed to top up early, especially with winter naturally pushing delivery lead times out further.

Customers are increasingly asking us, ‘Why is diesel so expensive?’. In short, Gulf war oil prices and broader instability across the Middle East are driving up the cost of crude and refined fuel throughout Europe. Add in the seasonal pickup in demand as temperatures fall across Devon and Cornwall, and pricing can become genuinely difficult to predict. Ordering ahead of time remains the most effective safeguard against both cost and availability issues.

It’s impossible to say with confidence. The UK diesel price forecast stays unsettled while tensions in the Gulf persist, and prices can turn quickly in either direction. That’s precisely why we monitor the market closely and keep pricing as transparent as we can – so instead of waiting on a fall that may not come, homeowners, businesses, and farmers can order at a steady pace, knowing we’re tracking the market for them.